SA’s rate of infection going only one way and that’s down

Government is preparing for a doomsday scenario in South Africa that been predicted by experts as unavoidable. One of the reasons for the lockdown and social distancing measures, is to retard the spread of the virus in order to gain extra time to prep hospitals for an overwhelming influx of infectious patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. 

Government is also actively honing in on infections through ‘testing and contact tracing’ to identify, track and monitor outbreaks of the virus. This is backed up by a widespread door-to-door community screening campaign as an independent pre-cursor to testing. Tests are not conducted randomly, there are criteria that need to be met first. The screening process requires physical symptoms of infection | recent exposure to someone already infected | recent travel to a Covid high risk country before a bud-up-the-nose test is approved. 

As test volumes increase a clear pattern is emerging. Instead of the predicted spike in rate of infection, we’re seeing a steady decline

80085 tested | 2173 positive = 2.71% rate of infection. That’s 1 person infected for every 37 people tested.

12x days ago it was 3.72% (35593 tested | 1326 positive) representing a reduction of 27% in the overall infection rate during this period. Here’s the percentages over time as they’ve been released in batch updates by official sources, almost daily from the 31st March to 12th April – 

  • 12Apr 2.71%
  • 11Apr 2.70%
  • 10Apr 2.74%
  • 09Apr 2.89%
  • 07Apr 3.01%
  • 06Apr 2.90%
  • 04Apr 2.93%
  • 03Apr 3.13%
  • 02Apr 3.11%
  • 31Mar 3.42%
  • 31Mar 3.72% ↔