The current approach in SA is postponing deaths not preventing them

Stats 101 and the logic test – an easily identifiable minority dominate the stats for severe complications, hospitalizations and death. Protect them from infection at all costs.. and severe cases and deaths will fall drastically. 

The number of people infected with Covid-19 is likely to be exponentially higher than peddled. The pre-test screening criteria is ensuring a significant percentage of infected persons slip through the net, and this is exaggerating the percentage of the population that will develop severe symptoms requiring hospitalization. 

Infected persons who are pre-symptomatic (period before symptoms develop) or asymptomatic (no symptoms) are being excluded from testing. Then there’s the human nature aspect of avoidance.. getting tested positive changes the law. You are now under full quarantine and if you go out and get close to someone, you could be arrested and slapped with an attempted murder charge. Or you could get detained and placed under government quarantine. 

Official stats claim that 4 out of 5 people infected develop only mild, or no symptoms, but those numbers are taken from a heavily biased system filtering out the majority and focusing on the sick. Only a fraction of the population of any given country has been tested at this stage. How many positives are there unknown to the stats engines that will recover and never be counted.

What this means is that if you get infected and don’t have any high risk markers (over 70, serious underlying health conditions etc) the chance of experiencing severe symptoms is significantly lower than advertised

This is not to say the virus is without causalities. 80% of all Covid-19 related deaths in Italy are over the age of 70. This is a common theme worldwide, the elderly and those with specific underlying health conditions are at serious risk. There are tens of thousands of people (out of 7 billion) being admitted to hospitals around the world and some are dying. These numbers (hospital admissions and deaths) are not in dispute. It’s the ratio between them and true number of infected persons that recover/develop immunity and don’t get counted in the stats that’s whacked up. If you exclude all the success stories, then for sure the picture painted will be bleak. 

This has had far reaching repercussions, leading governments around the world to panic and pursue a common pathway of self-inflicted economic destruction of the highest order. 

Economies are being trashed and entire populations are being locked down because projections have and are still being based on 1 in 5 infected persons placing a burden on the healthcare system.. and ultimately crashing it. Even if this were the case and this ratio was correct, placing the focus on protecting the high risk minority will save lives and avoid an overload altogether.

Most people are likely to get infected at some stage.. if not already. They’re going to build immunity and recover breeze-easy. This immunity takes them out the chain of transmission and it’s a dead-end for the virus over time (herd immunity). This is critical to ending the pandemic for everyone. 

If you want to stay out of it, then avoid getting infected. Treat every surface as contaminated and every person as infectious and take the necessary precautions to mitigate infection. Those who don’t want or need to.. we will owe our economic future to them when this is all over. For the high risk minority who don’t have the luxury of avoiding infection, this is where Governments should be focusing their attentions – to protect them at all costs because whatever that cost may be, it will pale in comparison to the R1.6billion being lost every week caging us like animals not being fed.

by Leon Setaro

Zarbloodstockin house

 Yesterday’s quotes –

source Regional director for Netcare Craig Murphy, said the origin of the exposure was traced to a patient who was admitted to hospital via the emergency department on 4 April with a suspected stroke.

Upon admission, the patient was risk assessed and screened for Covid-19 symptoms and exposure as per the Netcare protocol, which is aligned to the NICD guidelines. The patient did not exhibit any signs of the virus and on questioning his family, no symptoms or exposure risks were reported.”
source  On 13 April South Africa had 2 272 confirmed cases and 27 confirmed deaths – giving a CFR of around 1.2%. This rate has been rising steadily in recent weeks.

Mphahlele cautioned that this figure only considers confirmed cases but “there are asymptomatic cases and many more mild cases that do not present at hospital who are not being counted, which would bring the death rate significantly down
source Stephen Morse, an epidemiologist at Columbia University, told Business Inside,

There’s significant transmission by people not showing symptoms,”  We don’t know all the unidentified cases out there, It’s mostly sicker people in hospitals who are being tabulated.”
source A biotech company in Iceland that has tested more than 9,000 people found that around 50 percent of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic, the researchers told CNN